The 4% rule
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. The classic guideline says that if you withdraw about 4% of your portfolio in the first year and adjust for inflation afterward, a diversified portfolio has historically lasted 30 years in most periods. Flip it around and your target is 25× your yearly spending. For longer retirements, many people use 3–3.5%.
Why "real" return
The calculator uses a return after inflation, so every number is in today's money. A diversified stock-heavy portfolio has historically earned something like 4–7% a year above inflation, but the future may differ.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 4% rule safe?
It's a historical rule of thumb, not a guarantee. Lower withdrawal rates, flexible spending and keeping some income all add safety.
What should I count as spending?
Everything you expect to spend each year in retirement, including health insurance and taxes on withdrawals.
Does it include Social Security?
No. Subtract expected pension income from your yearly spending to account for it.